"Traffic arbitrage will collapse in 2 years" - or Alex Slobozhenko?

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An interview on the Tochka G channel with the founder of the Traffic Devils team, Oleksandr Slobozhenko, caused a great deal of buzz in the arbitration world. In the interview, Slobozhenko stated that the end of the app era has now begun, and that it became noticeable in September and early October 2023. According to him, “all teams that are focused on Android sorsas, which means 70-80% of teams will close down because it will not be exported.” However, he does not plan to disband the app development team, which costs him 140K per month. Let’s look at the reasons for such words from a public leader of arbitrage and consider them a proof.

 

Arbitrage is a constant storm – whether it concerns FB, spy services, or app platforms. Most teams, like ours, are used to adapting to constant change. We’re always looking for new ways to diversify our sourcing and increase our resources, which significantly reduces the chances of failure and only adds new opportunities. 

 

So what kind of update was released on Google Play and why did it make a splash? This platform has become stricter in the approval of new apps. Let’s analyze the pros and cons for the arbitration community.

 

Let’s start with the disadvantages:

 

Google Play can now block an app just 3-4 days after its release in the PlayMarket. Thus, new applications will not have much time to recruit users and will reduce the number of depots.

After an app is removed from Google Play, users who have already downloaded the app will receive a security warning and will be forced to uninstall it from their phone without the possibility of continuing to use it. This will critically reduce the number of downloads from new users and generally affect the downloading of new apps by the same users. 

 

As for the pros or, as we might say, “hopes”:

 

Migration of users to Android 14, which already has the update, is much slower than to iOS. That is, Android users are slower to change their software, so they can use applications that are already installed longer.

This is especially true for Tier-3 countries, so it will be possible to fill these GEOs for some time to come without major losses. However, the number of audiences in Tier-1 and Tier-2 countries will decrease significantly due to the above disadvantages.

 

In the context of 2024, Slobozhenko notes that traffic rates and profits from it have decreased significantly. He believes that this is the year when the funnel, which many people are used to, loses its effectiveness and no longer provides such easy earnings as before. This gradual stagnation of traffic indicates a change in demand and business models. 

 

Changes in market conditions, stricter platform requirements, and growing competition are making the mobile app business more complex. It also requires teams and their owners to be ready to adapt. However, other colleagues in the industry do not talk about the complete death of arbitration. In the same interview, Dmytro Belyanin, marketing manager, ex-CCO of Parimatch International, also points out the importance of adaptability and reputation building for the long term.

 

Instead of hoping for quick success, app developers should be ready to put significant effort into finding new ways of development, financial losses for testing and implementation, and generally improving their products. 

 

Vitaliy Sitovskiy, co-founder and CEO of Traffic Squad, a media buying company, also says: “Affiliate teams are poorly capitalized, let’s be honest. In order to earn money and talk about some kind of capitalization, you have to create an ecosystem for media buying.”

 

It is important to develop strategies for long-term success, such as building strong relationships with users, creating unique and useful content, and continuously improving applications based on user feedback.

 

In addition, app teams and owners need to be open to innovation and willing to take risks. The market is constantly changing and requires constant innovative thinking, as well as the ability to adapt to new trends and technologies.

 

The conclusion is that teams that do not adapt will quickly be eliminated from the market. The percentage of such teams can reach 80%. Thus, the market will be flooded with titans who will only become more powerful by staying “on the wave” of progress and adaptation.

 

So, who will be the winner in 2 years? In the meantime, the results of the fierce race for profit remain open, our team is constantly growing, and we are not going to lose momentum. Who is with us?

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