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Economic cycles, like market trends, are unpredictable. However, many people try to find patterns that will help them predict the future. One such tool is the Benner cycle, a theory that supposedly predicts the ups and downs of the economy. But can it be fully relied on, especially in such volatile niches as cryptocurrencies and iGaming? Let’s find out.
The Benner cycle is a model of long-term economic ups and downs. Its supporters claim that it predicted the Great Depression of 1929, the dot-com crisis of 2000, and the financial crisis of 2008. If we follow this logic, then 2026 will be a new peak period for the economy, which could lead to upsurges in the crypto and gambling industries.
However, there are moments when this theory did not work: for example, after the Second World War or during the period of active market growth in the 1980s. That is, the Benner cycle is not a magic indicator, but only one of the possible scenarios.
Given the history and market trends, here’s what could happen:
This has historically driven the growth of the crypto market.
Expectations: $100,000 – $150,000 per BTC.
ETFs launched by giants like BlackRock and Fidelity open up new financial opportunities.
Ethereum and Layer-2 solutions (Arbitrum, Optimism) simplify scaling
Decentralized finance (DeFi) will get more users.
Stricter rules may make it harder for small players to operate.
Large players will adapt, but the market will become less chaotic.
The online gambling and affiliate marketing market also responds to global economic trends. Here are the key changes that may occur:
Latin America, Africa, and India are growing regions for gambling
Expected profit growth: +20-30%
Proven honesty and transparency of payments attract new players.
Virtual casinos are becoming a reality.
Expected growth of the AR/VR gambling market: +40-50%
If the Benner cycle is true, a correction will follow the peak. This could mean:
There is no universal formula for predicting the economy, especially in dynamic niches such as cryptocurrencies and iGaming. It is important to follow not only economic cycles but also global trends, technological changes, and political factors.
For affiliates and gambling operators, this means one thing: you need to be flexible, adapt to changes, and use any forecasts as an additional guide, not as an absolute truth.