Will a potential war between India and Pakistan change the future of online gambling?

When geopolitics is a game changer

In the global economy, events that seem local can have consequences for entire industries on the other side of the world. Online gambling is one of the most change-sensitive industries: the reaction to political crises is always instantaneous.
That is why today it is worth taking a closer look at the growing tension between India and Pakistan.

At the moment, we are only talking about the threat of war, not its inevitability. However, the signals are too loud to ignore.

In such circumstances, responsible business should ask itself not “will there be a war” but “what will we do if it starts.”

Why is it important for the gambling industry?

India is one of the largest and most promising online gambling markets in the world. Over the past 5 years, the volume of online betting there has grown more than 4 times.
The following sectors have been particularly active

War or even a partial conflict can bring down this entire ecosystem in a matter of weeks. There are several reasons for this:

1. Survival priority – in wartime, entertainment costs are the first to go down.
   
2. Blocking the Internet and services – governments usually restrict access to “unnecessary” content.
   
3. Risks for advertising channels – Facebook, Google, TikTok services can temporarily or permanently restrict advertising in the region.

Thus, even without physical destruction, the economic “collapse” for the gambling business looks almost inevitable.

Which online gambling verticals are most vulnerable?

Traffic: where are the biggest risks?

Advertising strategies in the region today are highly dependent on:

• Google Ads (PPC),
• Facebook Ads,
• Influencer Marketing.

In case of escalation:

• Access to advertising accounts may be restricted.
• Gambling-related advertising may be banned temporarily or completely.
• The cost per acquisition (CAC) will increase several times due to the shrinking audience and increased demand for traffic in safer GEOs.

For many operators, this will mean the need to instantly revise marketing budgets and engagement channels.

What should be the anti-crisis steps?

In a changing environment, the winner is not the one who is stronger, but the one who adapts faster.
What should you do now?

Diversification of geography

• Enter less risky markets: Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya
• Search for new segments with good potential in mobile gambling.

Shifting the product focus

• A focus on casinos and lotteries that are less dependent on real-world events.
  
• Development of in-game mechanics that do not require an external calendar of events.

View traffic channels

• Boost organic traffic through SEO.
• Implementation of own push platforms and e-mail marketing to maintain contacts with users even without relying on global social networks.

Conclusion: crisis as a test of resilience

Online gambling has been tested by turbulence more than once: the COVID-19 pandemic, regulatory restrictions, economic crises.
Each time, those who thought a few steps ahead survived.

Time will tell whether there will be a war between India and Pakistan.
But today, every operator working in Asian markets should remember: it is necessary to prepare not when the first missiles appear on the horizon, but when the first warning signs appear.

While others are waiting for news, you should have a plan of action ready.